I saw a presentation today on trying to model coral reef damage from Cyclone impacts along the Great Barrier Reef. From what I understand, specific corals are dying because they were made to withstand a certain maximum temperature, and they become damaged as the ocean warms. The presentation also mentioned how much cooler the sea surface temps become after a hurricane rolls through, primarily from ocean mixing. That wasn't what the talk was about, but it is an interesting thing to think about. I believe that wave energy is proportionate to the square of the wavelength, and wavelength is directly proportional to the "depth" of the wave under the surface. This wavelength also corresponds to swell height, as long as the water the sufficiently deep. The energy that is required to produce large waves is generated by the fetch (the distance the wind is blowing in the same direction), and the speed of the wind. What is interesting is that the largest wave ever measured directly with instruments was 91 feet from Hurricane Ivan in 2004 in the Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf is not that big, so the fetch could not have been that big relatively. The 160 mph winds churned up 91 foot waves with a 600 foot wavelength in a relatively short distance. This wavelength is incredibly long, although there have been wavelengths reported up to 2600 feet in the past. A wave stirs up the water significantly to a depth of half of the wavelength. It is this action that is going to damage corals which are easily in the zone of significant mixing. What I'm interested in more, however, is the surface heat dissipated from all this mixing. I found a paper here that says that currents from hurricanes can move at 2.5 m/s, and reach as deep as 1000m. This will contribute significantly to mixing, and bring much cooler deeper water to the surface. Equally, the deeper water will become warmer.
All of this is interesting with the situation of climate change and increased storm intensity. Science reported a couple years ago that maximum wave heights in the Pacific have been shown to be increasing, which is a result of increased energy from 4% more energy from water vapor. As this continues to increase, there should be an increase in relative storm intensity, wave height, and coastal and marine damage. These large storms have the effect of significantly mixing the water column to great depths within a couple hundred miles of a hurricane center. Although the effect might be minor, it seems like this may help to buffer surface ocean warming in the future, by causing an increase in ocean mixing. This does not reach the deep ocean water, which only the thermohaline circulation can influence, but it should be influential in the top couple thousand feet.
Another big factor in the equation is if ocean currents will increase or decrease in the future. If they do increase, then this also may help bring sea surface heat further down.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
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