Day two

There's a point I'd like to talk about that Ernst von Weizsacker made last week about decoupling economic growth from energy conservation. Theoretically, this idea of decoupling doesn't resonate well with me, because it implies that can separate our economy from consuming energy, which isn't true and of course he knows that. His book Factor 5 says that with current knowledge and technology, we can get 5 times the amount of GDP/energy consumption with a mix of technologies and economic strategies. Although I haven't read either of his books, I believe the real goal here is to limit GHG emissions and avoid damaging climate change. He addressed the political will side of things, and how that is the biggest hurdle to overcome in this quest to limit ppm to 450, or whatever the final goal may be. In his opinion, we should be able raise energy prices at the same rate we increase energy efficiency, so the net total we pay for energy remains constant. The argument that cutting green house gases damages the economy could be minimized if this is the case, although companies are going to have to invest in these efficiency technologies such as hybrid vehicles, wind and solar power, and CCS technologies. I believe that it is necessary and possible for us to reach this factor 5 goal, but to do it without paying extra for it seems too optimistic for me. That being said, it should definitely be done around the world immediately, and we need to come up with a factor 5 strategy to be reached by 2040. After all, I'm sure the GDP of the world will double in the next 30 years, and so therefore the CO2 emissions must halve. This is will a 2 billion person increase, along with the vastly increasing living standards of a good portion of the world. So while this only a halving of emissions worldwide, it is more like an 80% reduction in the US, if there is to be fairness. In order to achieve this, i believe we must massively scale up our efficiency standards and renewable energy portfolio. This will happen at a rate much more rapidly than industry would ever be able to adjust to on their own without a lot of pushing. This must happen, all in a time when roughly half the country does not even believe that man isn't causing global warming!

Matthew Kahn said today that in 40 years there may be a world wide demand for 3 billion cars. Hypothetically, if they all get 40mpg, all at 10,000 miles per year, that would take 750 billion gallons a year, or roughly 18 billion barrels of oil per year devoted to personal transportation which is never going to happen. There isn't enough out there to satisfy that demand, so what is going to give. Possibly a combination of all three, and I think only time will tell. We are entering an era of oil and gas scarcity, and we saw a glimpse of it in 2008, although a portion of that price spike was contrived. The next time there is a price spike will probably correspond to a major hurricane taking refining capacity out of service, but I'm predicting about 5 years before we really see an increasing amount of oil demand outstrip supply.